A chart by METR, a nonprofit AI organization, has become an industrywide obsession as it tracks the rapid development of large AI systems.

MIT Technology Review publishes an in-depth analysis of METR's controversial time horizon plot, which has been widely misinterpreted by both AI optimists and pessimists. The graph, which shows AI models' improving ability to complete tasks over time, has led some to believe AI utopia or apocalypse is imminent. The article clarifies the true meaning of the data and addresses common misconceptions about AI capability measurements and progress trajectories.